PAN INDIA WEATHER & SOUTHWEST MONSOON UPDATE Weekly Outlook: 16–22 July 2026

🌧️🇮🇳 PAN INDIA WEATHER & SOUTHWEST MONSOON UPDATE
Weekly Outlook: 16–22 July 2026
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🇮🇳 PAN INDIA WEATHER SNAPSHOT
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The second week of July witnessed contrasting monsoon behaviour across India. While the monsoon remained active along the Himalayan foothills and parts of eastern India, rainfall activity weakened over the west coast and parts of central peninsular India. This spatial contrast is consistent with the onset of a temporary suppressed phase of the monsoon.
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🌧️ RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTS
(08–14 July)
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🌴 Kerala & Mahe

Rainfall continued to remain below the seasonal average, with most districts receiving only light to moderate spells. Heavy rainfall was largely confined to isolated windward locations along the Western Ghats.

The general rainfall statistics show that the monsoon deficit in Kerala is still around 30% with normal rains recorded only in Trivandrum, Kottayam, &, Pathanamthitta districts as on date.  In all the other districts the deficit is in the range 20% to 52% with Idukki & Wayanad topping the deficit at more than 50%. The ELNino signals are clear and loud . The weak lower westerlies simply cannot reach the eastern ranges at full blast. 

🌊 Coastal Karnataka

Moderate rainfall continued, though cumulative totals were below what is normally expected for mid-July.

🌴 Konkan, Goa & Mumbai

Rainfall reduced significantly after the intense spell of the previous week as the offshore trough weakened.

Scattered rainfall occurred over southern and eastern districts, while northern and western parts remained comparatively dry.

🌾 Madhya Pradesh & Vidarbha

Moderate rainfall continued with isolated heavy spells associated with residual monsoon disturbances.

Fairly widespread rainfall persisted, benefiting agricultural operations.

While coastal Odisha and pockets like Balasore, in particular got battered by heavy monsoon rains due to a low that developed around 12th July, the system is likely to become a full blown monsoon depression by 16 th July and beta-drift north- westerly .

🌾 Jharkhand & Bihar

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continued under the influence of the active monsoon trough.

Eastern districts received better rainfall than western districts.

Despite isolated heavy downpours, Meghalaya continued to experience a significant cumulative rainfall deficit, with rainfall also remaining below normal over parts of Arunachal Pradesh.

This continuing deficit suggests weaker moisture transport into the northeastern hills than is climatologically typical. One possible contributor is a gradual strengthening of the developing El Niño background, which may be influencing the large-scale Walker circulation and reducing the intensity of monsoon southerlies reaching both Northeast India and the west coast.

However, local topography and intraseasonal atmospheric variability also play important roles. I see a deeper indirect teleconnection might exist between the monsoon deficit in the north east  and the westward expansion or eastward contraction of the Western Pacific subtropical high,  particularly in combination with the ELNino background state now prevailing. ( See pic-3)
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⚠️ FLASH FLOODS OVER THE WESTERN HIMALAYAS
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The interaction of a Western Disturbance with moisture-laden southwest monsoon winds once again triggered widespread heavy rainfall over the Western Himalayan region.

Several parts of:
🏔️ Uttarakhand
🏔️ Himachal Pradesh

experienced cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides and road disruptions.
This type of interaction has increasingly become a characteristic feature of the Indian monsoon, over the north western himalayan region where mid-latitude disturbances moving across the Himalayas interact with deep tropical moisture drawn from the Arabian sea to produce exceptionally heavy rainfall over mountainous terrain causing cloudbursts and devastation in short time frames. 

( See pic-2 regarding the dynamics of north western Himalayan cloudburst episodes during monsoon)

Tourists and pilgrims undertaking the Char Dham Yatra are advised to remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions and abide by official advisories.
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🌡️ TEMPERATURE UPDATE
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Persistent cloud cover maintained pleasant daytime temperatures across most Himalayan and Northeastern hill stations.

• Srinagar: 22–30°C
• Gulmarg: 12–21°C
• Pahalgam: 16–22°C

• Leh: 20–25°C

• Shimla: 18–23°C
• Manali: 16–22°C

• Mussoorie: 18–22°C
• Kedarnath: 6–11°C
• Badrinath: 7–12°C

• Shillong: 17–21°C
• Gangtok: 15–19°C
• Darjeeling: 15–19°C

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🔭 FORECAST (15–21 July)
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🌬️ 850 hPa Wind Pattern

Southwesterly monsoon winds are expected to remain established across India but somewhat weaker than during the first week of July, especially along the west coast.

🌪️ 200 hPa Velocity Potential

As anticipated in last week's outlook, upper-level 200 hPa velocity potential fields continue to indicate a suppressed convective phase over the southern peninsular Indian region till 18 th July as I had already predicted in my last weekly post.

This pattern is expected to persist until around 18 July, favouring a temporary reduction in organised monsoon activity over parts of southern peninsular and Central India.

Western Disturbance 

A weaker pulse of western disturbance is likely over the north western Himalayas from 19 th to 22 nd July. However it could trigger localized heavy cloudbursts by interaction with the monsoon flow with heavy moisture harvested from Arabian sea branch of the monsoon. Himachal Pradesh, Gharwal ranges of Uttrakhand may be on high alert around these days and Govt local authorities may issue relevant advisory to pilgrims bound for Chardham yatra. 

The seasonal monsoon trough is expected to remain positioned relatively far north until about 19 July, concentrating rainfall near the Himalayan foothills and adjoining northern plains.

🌊 West Coast Offshore Trough

The offshore trough extending from Gujarat to the Malabar Coast is expected to remain comparatively weak, resulting in subdued rainfall over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Konkan compared with climatological normal fir mid-July.  However, with the monsoon depression gaining traction by 18 th July, the south- east end of the  monsoon trough is likely to move southward and heavy rains are likely in the north - east, gangetic and Sub Himalayan west Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and east Uttarpradesh. 

🌀 Mid tropospheric low (monsoon depression)

However, with the monsoon depression gaining traction by 18 th July, the south- east end of the  monsoon trough is likely to move southward and heavy rains are likely in the north - east, gangetic and Sub Himalayan west Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and east Uttarpradesh. 

🌀 Bay of Bengal Outlook

Forecast guidance indicates that another low-pressure area, with the potential to develop into a monsoon depression around 15- 16 th July, may form over the northern Bay of Bengal.
If realised, this system could significantly enhance rainfall over:
🌧️ Bihar
🌧️ Eastern Uttar Pradesh
🌧️ Jharkhand
🌧️ Northeast India
and may also help revive the broader monsoon circulation during the latter part of the forecast period.

The western Offshore trough too likely to get stronger from 18 th July and as a consequence, the Malabar region, central Kerala, the Gujarat and Maharashtra coast the Konkan & Goa coast may expect very heavy rainfall from 18 th July. 

Fresh monsoon depression is on the cards around 23rd July at the head of BoB which may trigger heavy rains over central, east and north west India along with southern peninsular India. A largescale monsoon revival is likely from 19-20 th July which may be sustained till the last week of July.

With monsoon getting weaker the traditional  rain shadow regions of Tamil Nadu may remain dry particularly in the interior areas &  pockets neighboring the western ghats. However due to moisture flux convergence the central &  southern interior regions of Tamil Nadu( Madhurai, Thiruppur, Pudukkottai, Theni  and Chennai region could receive isolated thundershowers on 16 th & 17 th July.

Telengana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Karnataka 

Isolated moderate thundershowers likely over Hyderabad, Ramagundam, Warangal in Telengana, Srikakulam, Kurnool, Araku high ranges, and Vizag in Andhra Pradesh between 18 th and 24 th July.  Central & South interior rain shadow regions of Karnataka( Mysuru, Bangluru, Raichur ) may generally remain dry. Coastal Karnataka may however start getting heavier spells around 16 th- 18 th July with the western offshore monsoon trough getting revived.
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🌍 GLOBAL OCEAN–ATMOSPHERE UPDATE
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The tropical Pacific continues to exhibit an El Niño–leaning state. Ocean temperatures remain above average across parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while atmospheric coupling appears to be gradually strengthening. The latest RONI( Relatiive Oceanic Nino Index) over Nino 3.4 shows SST anomalies remaining consistently positive at 1.2°C clearly signalling strong ELNino background state. 

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The IOD remains with weakly positive tendencies. At present, it is not exerting a strong influence on the seasonal monsoon circulation and might even be negatively impacting it. The latest weekly SST anomalies show the IOD dip to -0.06°C. ( see pic-1)

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🌊 MADDEN–JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)
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The MJO remains weak, and is almost stalled in its phase 6-7 over the western hemisphere. with its amplitude below one, indicating limited influence on tropical convection. The destructive interference with ELNino and its current phase over the Western Pacific  is unlikely to provide a substantial enhancement to the Indian monsoon during the coming week.

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📊 MOPI ASSESSMENT
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The MOPI framework indicates that the Indian monsoon has entered a temporary suppressed intraseasonal phase rather than a seasonal breakdown.
Positive indicators remain:
✅ Well-established Tropical Easterly Jet.
✅ Persistent monsoon trough across northern India.
✅ Continued Bay of Bengal synoptic activity.
Constraining factors include:
⚠️ Weak offshore trough along the west coast.
⚠️ Reduced low-level westerly moisture transport affecting the western coast, central peninsular regions and Meghalaya & adjoining pockets in the north- east.
⚠️ Weak MJO support.
⚠️ Increasing influence of the evolving El Niño background state.
If the anticipated Bay of Bengal depression develops around 17 July, it should help restore monsoon activity across eastern and northeastern India and may signal the beginning of the next active phase of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon. But it might still not be enough to make up for the massive deficit in rainfall over the north east. 

കാലാവസ്ഥാ നിരീക്ഷണവും ദുരന്തപ്രതികരണവും ശക്തിപ്പെടുത്തും: മന്ത്രി ടി. സിദ്ദീഖ്

പുൽപള്ളി പഴശ്ശിരാജ കോളേജിൽ സ്ഥാപിക്കുന്ന ഡോപ്ലർ റഡാർ (Doppler Radar) സംവിധാനത്തിലൂടെ വയനാട് ജില്ലയിലെ കാലാവസ്ഥാ നിരീക്ഷണം കൂടുതൽ കൃത്യവും കാര്യക്ഷമവുമാക്കാൻ കഴിയുമെന്ന് കൃഷി വകുപ്പ് മന്ത്രി അഡ്വ. ടി. സിദ്ദീഖ് പറഞ്ഞു. പുത്തുമല ഹൃദയഭൂമിയിൽ സംഘടിപ്പിച്ച അനുസ്മരണ പരിപാടിയിൽ സംസാരിക്കുകയായിരുന്നു അദ്ദേഹം.

ഡോപ്ലർ റഡാറിലൂടെ മുൻകൂർ മുന്നറിയിപ്പ്(Early Warning System)

പ്രകൃതി ദുരന്തങ്ങൾ മുൻകൂട്ടി തിരിച്ചറിയാനും അതനുസരിച്ച് സമയോചിതമായ നടപടികൾ സ്വീകരിക്കാനുമുള്ള സംവിധാനങ്ങളാണ് സർക്കാർ നടപ്പാക്കുന്നതെന്ന് മന്ത്രി പറഞ്ഞു. കാലാവസ്ഥ മോശമാകുന്ന സാഹചര്യങ്ങളിൽ സുരക്ഷിത കേന്ദ്രങ്ങളിലേക്ക് മാറ്റി താമസിപ്പിക്കേണ്ട ആളുകളുടെ മാപ്പിങ് (Mapping) നടത്താൻ ബന്ധപ്പെട്ട ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥർക്ക് നിർദേശം നൽകിയിട്ടുണ്ടെന്നും അദ്ദേഹം വ്യക്തമാക്കി.

അതിജീവന പദ്ധതികൾക്ക് കൂട്ടായ പ്രവർത്തനം(Rehabilitation Efforts)

ദുരന്തബാധിതരായ കുട്ടികളുടെ തുടർപഠനം മുടങ്ങാതിരിക്കാൻ ആവശ്യമായ നടപടികൾ സ്വീകരിച്ചതായും മന്ത്രി പറഞ്ഞു. ത്രിതല പഞ്ചായത്ത് ജനപ്രതിനിധികളും ഉദ്യോഗസ്ഥരും വിവിധ വകുപ്പുകളും ഒറ്റക്കെട്ടായി പ്രവർത്തിക്കുന്നതിലൂടെയാണ് അതിജീവന പദ്ധതികൾ (Rehabilitation Projects) ഫലപ്രദമായി മുന്നോട്ട് പോകുന്നതെന്നും അദ്ദേഹം കൂട്ടിച്ചേർത്തു. 

അതേസമയം ദുരന്തബാധിതരുടെ വായ്പകളുമായി ബന്ധപ്പെട്ട വിഷയങ്ങളിൽ അനുഭാവപൂർണമായ തീരുമാനം ഉണ്ടാകുമെന്ന് മന്ത്രി അറിയിച്ചു. ദുരന്തത്തിൽ തകർന്ന ആരാധനാലയങ്ങളുടെ പുനരുദ്ധാരണത്തിനായും ആവശ്യമായ നടപടികൾ സ്വീകരിക്കുമെന്നും അദ്ദേഹം പറഞ്ഞു.

ആത്മവിശ്വാസത്തോടെ മുന്നോട്ട് പോകണം(Message of Hope)

ദുരന്തത്തിന്റെ തീരാത്ത വേദന അനുഭവിക്കുന്ന ജനങ്ങൾക്ക് ആത്മവിശ്വാസം പകരാനും അവരെ കൈപിടിച്ചുയർത്താനും കഴിയുന്നതെല്ലാം ചെയ്യാൻ എല്ലാവരും ഒരേ മനസോടെ മുന്നോട്ടുപോകണമെന്നും മന്ത്രി ടി. സിദ്ദീഖ് ആഹ്വാനം ചെയ്തു. 

English Summary : In a major move to bolster climate resilience and disaster response in Wayanad, Kerala Minister Adv. T. Siddique announced the installation of an advanced Doppler Radar System at Pazhassi Raja College, Pulpally.